FLU FEARS

"I hate pandemics. Not just because of the illnesses that they cause, but also because of the fear that ensues."

In 1918, as many as 50 million people worldwide died from the Spanish Flu, which is the most lethal single outbreak of disease in history. This is brought up any time an outbreak of flu kills someone such as the Bird Flu or SARS: see it can be dangerous! The news stories start coming out about how to survive the lethal flu, how to avoid death at the hand of the new pandemic.

Most recently it is the Swine Flu, which has killed 80 in Mexico City. Now it is always wise to try to stay healthy, and there are some basic things you can do to avoid catching disease; things your mom probably taught you to do but you stopped doing when you moved out like wash your hands and clean food before you eat it, make sure dishes are well cleaned, don't leave food out on the counter, etc. Because we live in such a healthy society in America and have such ready access to world class health care, we tend to let this kind of thing slide. So a reminder is good for us all.

Yet, and this is not to in any way make light of the deaths, Mexico City is one of the largest cities in the world, with a population of almost 22 million people in the area. It is also one of the most densely populated cities in the world with over fifteen thousand people per square mile. Couple that with the general level of poverty, poor medical care, shoddy infrastructure and emergency services, and malnutrition in the city and it isn't surprising that people are dying of the flu.

As doctors who have studied the 1918 outbreak note, the flu its self usually does not kill people. Mary Engel at the LA Times reports:

Most deaths in the 1918 influenza pandemic were due not to the virus alone but to common bacterial infections that took advantage of victims' weakened immune systems, according to two new studies that could change the nation's strategy against the next pandemic.

This isn't news to doctors, for years now if you go to a doctor with a viral infection, they will say "we can't fix that but I can give you some antibiotics to make sure you don't catch anything else." In a healthy society where things are generally clean and you have easy access to doctors, the chances of you actually getting that sick from any "pandemic" and dying is rather rare. However, in a nation of 300 million people, the Centers of Disease Control note that quite a few people die each year from the flu, pandemic or not:

By comparison, the CDC estimates that 36,000 people in the United States die each year of influenza-related illnesses. And in spite of this, we in the medical community still have a hard time convincing people to get their flu shots.

The fact is that Swine Flu is not new, it is not unknown to transfer to humans from pigs, and it's not particularly lethal as viruses go. Nor was SARS despite people in China dying from it, nor was Spanish Flu. What is lethal is getting very ill in a filthy area with poor nutrition and health care to begin with. That's bad no matter what the flu is called.

Sure, it makes good press to report about the next flu, it sells papers to scream death and terror, and it never hurts to warn folks of something they ought to be aware of. And the flu can kill the very young and aged especially. This just isn't the next black death like its being reported by Drudge and others.